Reliable regional weather and climate information from daily to decadal time scales are crucial for socio-economic planning and societal preparedness. In order to prove and assess the breadth of advanced predictions, WP5 will synthesize the scientific work carried out in APPLICATE to set a basis for providing recommendations for the development of future weather and climate prediction system and their operational use. Thus, improved predictive capacity will build on the knowledge gained in WP3 about the mechanisms linking the Arctic with mid-latitudes, the model developments carried out in WP2 and the strategies proposed in WP4 on how to make the best use of observational data in the Arctic, in order to propose and evaluate new weather and climate prediction systems to better capture impacts of polar features on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in mid-latitudes as well as fast-developing meso-scale events in the vicinity of polar regions, such as polar lows.
- Batté, L., Välisuo, I., Chevallier, M. et al. (2020). Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts. Clim Dyn 54, 5013–5029 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8
- SIMIP Community (2020). Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086749. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749
- Zampieri, L., Goessling, H. F., & Jung, T. (2018). Bright prospects for Arctic sea ice prediction on subseasonal time scales. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 9731–9738. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079394
- Køltzow, M., Casati, B., Bazile, E., Haiden, T., & Valkonen, T. (2019). An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1, Weather and Forecasting, 34(4), 959-983. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/34/4/waf-d-19-0003_1.xml